Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 14.192951 17.326623 20.828984 25.010274 29.841867 35.224894 41.650161
2025-03-23 9.929554 14.026416 19.131749 25.855399 34.361747 44.644904 57.882896
2025-03-30 7.142936 11.396495 17.186519 25.415914 36.555159 50.835193 70.212477
2025-04-06 5.878251 10.366316 16.924687 26.814067 40.898398 59.747057 86.306407
2025-04-13 4.153738 8.198335 14.588102 24.849720 40.254857 61.788636 93.289828
2025-04-20 3.399948 7.370924 14.056072 25.340652 42.984499 68.473059 106.812782
2025-04-27 2.858014 6.768080 13.748051 26.070364 46.039388 75.721704 121.445796
2025-05-04 2.460295 6.331405 13.626352 27.036619 49.470016 83.657114 137.415383
2025-05-11 2.077794 5.824834 13.282905 27.552560 52.171668 90.597129 152.211270
2025-05-18 1.689473 5.197959 12.600124 27.365551 53.657976 95.698621 164.439305
2025-05-25 1.305385 4.462277 11.566246 26.389839 53.686541 98.451384 173.143346
2025-06-01 1.044916 3.949507 10.890512 25.980313 54.613649 102.630867 184.179547
2025-06-08 0.729587 3.189893 9.588338 24.303033 53.373898 103.588879 190.870820
2025-06-15 0.614573 2.985683 9.530001 25.170772 56.920077 112.847558 211.548858
2025-06-22 0.464698 2.588657 8.907681 24.743556 57.961784 117.866405 225.511951
2025-06-29 0.410555 2.513923 9.095541 26.112236 62.574755 129.326520 250.660476
2025-07-06 0.268424 1.987366 7.919441 24.189679 60.459544 128.719548 255.416426
2025-07-13 0.218654 1.835523 7.774270 24.670113 63.252625 137.081724 275.833115
2025-07-20 0.182372 1.725342 7.728672 25.384292 66.579556 146.577992 298.582696
2025-07-27 0.155783 1.649136 7.773561 26.330108 70.463407 157.286640 323.852707
2025-08-03 0.127021 1.533448 7.656424 26.835193 73.419685 166.374686 346.578453
2025-08-10 0.095783 1.364334 7.302457 26.652114 74.829104 172.562575 364.335582
2025-08-17 0.065101 1.149817 6.705537 25.696993 74.398063 175.139264 375.635984